Confidence in Climate Projections

Confidence in projections is increased through greater agreement of the model’s projections (sign and magnitude) and more evidence (such as greater quality of the projections, and explanation of the causes of changes).[1]

There are five lines of evidence to be considered when assessing confidence in projections.

(Source: Climate Change in Australia)

The confidence in the projections can be greater if:

1. projected changes are similar to the observed trends
2. the causes for the changes are understood
3. there is consistency among the model projections (model agreement)
4. the models produce a realistic current climate
5. downscaled projections are similar to those from the global models.

[1] https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf