Analyzing Projections

While there was some spread in the changes of annual mean surface air temperature (ranging from warming of 1.3 to 2.4 °C), changes in rainfall will have the most significant impact on the results for the hydrological application of this case study.

Most models project annual increases in rainfall of around 0.5 mm/day. This could be considered the more likely change scenario. However, from a risk perspective, the large increases or some decreases projected by some models are possible futures to be considered, though possibly with less confidence.